Latest analysis by DST panel, that predicted end of Covid pandemic in India in February 2021, finds that about 60 per cent Indians have been infected so far..

根據DST小組的最新分析預測,印度的冠狀病毒大流行將于2021年2月結束。該分析發現,到目前為止,約60%的印度人已被感染。

New Delhi: India’s nosediving Covid-19 numbers may have come as a relief but till November, the country had missed about 90 infections for every detected case.

新德里:印度新冠數字的急劇下降可能是一種安慰,但截至11月,該國每發現一個病例就有90個感染病例漏報。


An analysis of India’s Covid numbers till last month has thrown up these figures. It was conducted by members of a panel formed by the Department of Science and Technology (DST), the same committee that developed the India-specific supermodel that predicted that the pandemic will taper off by February 2021 in India. An analysis in September had shown that India had missed about 60-65 infections for every detected case.

這些數據是對印度截至上個月的新冠數據進行分析后得出的。這項調查是由印度科學技術部成立的一個小組的成員進行的,該委員會曾預測,到2021年2月,印度的流感疫情將會逐漸平息。DST還開發了專門針對印度的超級模型。去年9月的一項分析顯示,印度每發現一個病例,就會漏掉60-65個感染病例。

“We have been doing state-wise analysis and currently that shows that till about mid-November, Delhi and Kerala missed about 25 infections for every case. The number is about 300 for every case in UP and Bihar. Most states are in the 70-120 range,” Manindra Agrawal, a member of the DST’s committee and professor at the Department of Computer Science at IIT Kanpur, told ThePrint.

“我們一直在對各邦進行分析,目前的分析顯示,截至11月中旬,德里和喀拉拉邦每一例病例漏診約25例。在北方邦和比哈爾邦,這一數字約為300例。而大多數邦都在70-120之間,”印度理工學院坎普爾分校計算機科學系教授、DST委員會成員Manindra Agrawal對ThePrint表示。

“The India figure is about 90 infections missed for every case. If you compare that with countries like Italy and the United Kingdom, it is about 10-15 missed infections for every case. It is important to understand that these people were never tested because they never exhibited any symptoms,” he added.

“印度的數據是每個病例大約有90例被遺漏。相比之下,意大利和英國等國的每個病例中大約有10-15例感染病例被遺漏。重要的是要知道這些人從未得到檢測,因為他們從未表現出任何癥狀,”他補充說。

“In fact, our model shows that while the third peak in Delhi was bigger, the actual spread of the infection was almost the same. During the second peak, Delhi missed 43 infections per case while in the third, it missed just 21. That is because the Delhi government had stepped up the testing,” Agrawal said.

“事實上,我們的模型顯示,雖然德里的第三個高峰更大,但實際的感染傳播幾乎是一樣的。在第二次高峰期間,德里每例漏診43例,而在第三次高峰時,每例漏診21例。那是因為德里政府已經加強了檢測,”Agrawal說。

The model arrived at by the expert committee is unique — it uses the number of positive tests on a given day to arrive at an estimate of the actual number of infections in the population two weeks ago, since the incubation period of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the body is a maximum of 14 days.

專家委員會推導該模型的方式是獨一無二的——它利用某一天的陽性檢測數量來估算兩周前人群中的實際感染人數,因為SARS-CoV-2病毒在人體內的潛伏期最長為14天。

Apart from Agrawal, the DST committee included professor M. Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad, Dr Gagandeep Kang of CMC Vellore, professor Biman Bagchi of Indian Institute of Sciences, Bengaluru, professors Arup Bose and Sankar Paul of Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, and Lt Gen. Madhuri Kanitkar from the Ministry of Defence.

除Agrawal外,DST委員會還包括海德拉巴理工學院的M. Vidyasagar教授、CMC Vellore的Gagandeep Kang博士、班加羅爾印度科學院的Biman Bagchi教授、加爾各答印度統計研究所的Arup Bose教授和Sankar Paul教授,以及國防部的Madhuri Kanitkar中將。

The earlier findings were published in a pre-print article in the Indian Journal of Medical Research, authored by Agrawal, Vidyasagar and Kanitkar.

早期的研究結果發表在《印度醫學研究雜志》的一篇預印本文章中,作者是Agrawal、Vidyasagar和Kanitkar。

‘India’s inefficiency helped’
Agrawal is emphatic that India, according to the supermodel projections, will not see another peak and sticks to the committee’s original projections of February 2021, i.e., the country will see an end of the pandemic with about 20,000 active cases. This is partly because of the large numbers of undetected infections.

“印度的低效率是一大助力”
阿格拉瓦爾強調,根據該超級模型的預測,印度不會再次出現疫情高峰,并堅持委員會最初的2021年2月的預測,也就是說,該國將結束疫情,只剩下2萬個活躍病例。而這部分是由于大量感染者未被發現造成的。

“India level we do not expect another peak now. Broadly, the numbers will continue tapering off. Currently, as per the model, about 60 per cent Indians have already been infected, they have antibodies,” he said.

“從印度的層面來看,我們預計不會再出現另一個峰值??偟膩碚f,這個數字將繼續下降。目前,根據模型,大約60%的印度人已經被感染,他們有了抗體,”他說。

“That is corroborated by the fact that even after the festival season, except Delhi, not many states saw a spike. Some states may go up a bit. Uttarakhand is currently rising, so is Meghalaya,” he added.

“即使在節日過后,除了德里以外,也沒有多少邦出現病例激增,這個事實證實了這一點。一些邦可能會上漲一點。北阿坎德邦目前正在上升,梅加拉亞邦也在上升?!?

If India does end up with a single Covid peak, it will be an outlier. Most countries around the world have seen multiple peaks. The United Kingdom is going through one currently, Germany has imposed a second lockdown and Sweden, the original proponent of herd immunity, is struggling.

如果印度最終只出現一個新冠峰值,那它將是一個離群值。世界上大多數國家都經歷過多次峰值。英國目前正在經歷一次,德國已經實施了第二次封鎖,而最初倡導群體免疫的瑞典正在苦苦掙扎。


“So the infection spread in the population. Countries like Germany still have a lot of uninfected population. There are also other factors such as South Asia, Africa in general have been less affected. That could be because of a younger population or there may be other factors at play. Experts are analysing that.”

“所以這種病毒的感染一直在人群中傳播。像德國這樣的國家仍然有很多未感染的人口。還有其他因素,如南亞、非洲總體上受到的影響較小。這可能是因為人口年輕化,也可能是其他因素在起作用。專家們正在對此進行分析?!?br />