Dec 14, 2020

2020年12月14日

Industrial metals are well on their way to being among the top performers of 2020, supported by red hot demand from China and global supply concerns.

在中國旺盛的需求和全球供應擔憂的支撐下,工業金屬有望成為2020年表現最好的金屬之一。

As of Friday, the MSCI Industrial Metals Index—which tracks the price of copper, nickel, aluminum and more—was up 21.4% year-to-date, just below the index of precious metals, up 21.9%. The broader S&P GSCI, which measures metals as well as agricultural and energy-related commodities, was underwater by nearly 10%.

截至上周五,追逐銅、鎳、鋁等價格的摩根士丹利資本國際工業金屬指數今年迄今上漲了21.4% ,略低于貴金屬指數21.9% 。涵蓋范圍更廣的標準普爾高盛商品指數(s & p GSCI)下跌近10% 。該指數用于衡量金屬以及農產品和能源相關大宗商品的價格。


Copper prices have been on a tear this year thanks not only to the economic strength of China, the metal’s biggest consumer, but also because of its essential role in nascent technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable green energy.

銅價今年一路飆升,不僅得益于中國的經濟實力——中國是銅的最大消費國,還得益于其在電動汽車(ev)和可再生綠色能源等新興技術起到的重要作用。

The very hottest major commodity, however, has been iron ore. Used to make steel, the metal has increased nearly 70% in 2020, with iron futures trading on the Singapore Exchange topping $155 per metric ton Friday for the first time since the contract came online in 2013.

然而,最熱門的主要大宗商品是鐵礦石。2020年,用于制造鋼鐵的鐵價格上漲了近70% ,周五,新加坡交易所的鐵期貨交易價格自2013年合約上線以來首次突破每公噸155美元。


At the very heart of this rally is rapidly strengthening factory activity around the globe. In November, a number of countries’ manufacturing sectors were in expansion mode, according to the monthly purchasing manager’s index (PMI), which is a leading indicator for demand.

本輪反彈的核心是全球工廠活動的迅速增強。根據月度采購經理人指數(PMI) ,11月份,許多國家的制造業處于擴張狀態。


The U.S., by comparison, is rebounding nicely, but it still has a long way to go before it reaches pre-pandemic levels. As of November, the number of jobs in the country was still below the February peak by nearly 10 million.

相比之下,美國反彈得不錯,但要達到大流行前的水平,還有很長的路要走。截至去年11月,美國的就業人數仍然比2月份的峰值低近1000萬。

Plenty of Gas in the Tank

油箱里有充足的汽油

I believe the rally is only getting started, and we could see ever higher asset prices in 2021, for a couple of significant reasons.

我相信這輪反彈才剛剛開始,我們可以預見到2021年的資產價格會越來越高,原因有以下幾個。

Number one, President-elect Joe Biden plans to make infrastructure one of his top priorities soon after taking office next month. Proposals have the U.S. spending as much as $2 trillion not only to improve roads, bridges and seaports but also beef up the EV sector, add charging stations, convert school buses to zero emissions and more.

第一,當選總統喬·拜登計劃在下個月就職后不久將基礎設施建設作為他的首要任務之一。根據提案,美國不僅要投入2萬億美元改善道路、橋梁和港口,還要加強電動汽車行業,增加充電站,將校車改造成零排放等等。


The second big reason has to do with inflation driven by additional stimulus packages and money-printing. Last week, legendary Bridgewater Associates money manager Ray Dalio held an “Ask Me Anything” event on Reddit, during which he said that the “flood of money and credit” was unlikely to recede next year. As such, “assets will not decline when measured in the depreciating value of money,” the billionaire investor suggested.

第二大原因與額外刺激計劃和印鈔造成的通貨膨脹有關。上周,著名的 基金經理雷 · 戴利奧在 Reddit 上舉辦了一場“問我任何事情”的活動,他在活動中表示,“資金和信貸的洪流”不太可能在明年消退。因此,這位億萬富翁投資者表示,“當用貨幣貶值來衡量,資產不會減少?!?。

All that money will need to go somewhere, in other words, and that includes base metals and other commodities.

換句話說,所有這些資金都需要流向某個地方,包括賤金屬和其它大宗商品。

Congress is currently considering a $908 billion stimulus bill that’s supported by the White House. According to Barron’s, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Gita Gopinath is urging Congress to pass the relief package even at the risk of heating up inflation, which would be supportive of commodities.

國會目前正在考慮一項由白宮支持的9080億美元的經濟刺激法案。據《巴倫周刊》報道,國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)首席經濟學家吉塔·戈皮納特敦促國會通過救助方案,即使面臨通貨膨脹加劇的風險,這將有利于大宗商品市場。

Remember, the Federal Reserve seems no longer interested in containing inflation. In August, Fed Chair Jerome Powell unveiled a new policy approach that would allow inflation to average 2% over time, meaning price spikes month-to-month would be tolerated.

記住,美聯儲似乎不再對遏制通脹感興趣。今年8月,美聯儲主席杰羅姆 · 鮑威爾公布了一項新的政策方案,允許通脹率在一段時間內平均達到2% ,這意味著美聯儲能夠容忍每月的價格上升。

Emerging Markets: “The Most Important Chart” as We Head Into 2021

新興市場: 邁向2021年的“最重要圖表”

Besides base metals, I’m also bullish on emerging markets. Below is a chart that CLSA calls “the most important chart for global investors to pay attention to as we go into 2021.”

除了賤金屬,我還看好新興市場。下面是里昂證券稱之為“2021年全球投資者需要關注的最重要圖表”

In a report dated December 10, analysts at the Hong Kong-based financial firm write that they see emerging markets (EMs) offering the “greatest opportunity” next year. If you take a look at the chart, you can see that the EM universe, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF), is currently testing resistance that goes back to late 2007.

在12月10日的一份報告中,這家總部位于香港的金融公司的分析師寫道,他們認為新興市場明年將提供“最大的機遇”。如果你看看這個圖表,你會發現,根據 MSCI 新興市場指數(MXEF)衡量,新興市場領域目前正在測試中的阻力可以追溯到2007年末。


If a breakout occurs, CLSA says, it would be “similar to the recognition phase in 2004 following the 1994 – 2004 secular bear market pattern.” To give you some idea of the returns EM investors may have seen at the time, the MXEF increased over 200% in the four-year period ended December 31, 2007.

如果突破發生,里昂證券表示,這將“類似于1994-2004年長熊市模式之后的2004年認可階段”為了讓你了解新興市場投資者當時可能看到的回報,MXEF 在截至2007年12月31日的四年期間增長了超過200% 。

Looking ahead to 2021, I agree with CLSA and others in believing EMs look well-positioned to outperform, particularly now that a few different COVID-19 vaccine candidates are becoming available. In November, close to half of fund managers participating in a Bank of America survey said they believe emerging markets are poised to outperform next year, ahead of the S&P 500, oil and gold.

展望2021年,我同意里昂證券和其他人的觀點,認為 EMs 看起來處于優勢地位,特別是現在幾種不同的2019冠狀病毒疾病候選疫苗正在投入使用。去年11月,近半數參與美國銀行調查的基金經理表示,他們相信新興市場明年的表現將超過標準普爾500指數(s & p 500)的石油和黃金。


Meanwhile, JPMorgan points out that EMs are currently under-owned on a relative basis, and that after being largely ignored by investors this year, they could rally as much as 20% in 2021.

與此同時,摩根大通指出,新興市場國家目前相對而言持有水平偏低,在今年被投資者忽視之后,它們可能在2021年上漲20% 。

Attractive Dividend Yields

有吸引力的股息收益率

The EM investment case is strengthening even more as the U.S. has joined Europe and Japan in offering near-zero or even negative real yields. More than 75% of all debt issued by governments in developed markets (DMs) now trades at a negative real yield, according to JPMorgan.

新興市場投資的理由更加充分,因為美國已經加入歐洲和日本的行列,提供接近零甚至負的實際收益率。摩根大通的數據顯示,發達市場政府發行的所有債券中,超過75% 目前的實際收益率為負值。

This phenomenon isn’t reserved just for government debt, though. For the first time ever, investment-grade corporate debt in the U.S. trades with an effective real yield of 0%, the Wall Street Journal reports.

然而,這種現象并不僅僅局限于政府債務。據《華爾街日報》報道,美國投資級公司債有史以來第一次實際收益率為0% 。

This is forcing yield-starved investors to seek alternatives.

這迫使渴望收益的投資者尋找替代品。


Undervalued Compared to U.S. Market

與美國市場相比價值被低估


Compared to the U.S. market, EMs also appear to be undervalued, making now an exciting entry point. The chart below shows you the ratio between the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and S&P 500. As you can see, EM stocks are more undervalued on a relative basis now than at any other time since the early 2000s.

與美國市場相比,新興市場似乎也被低估了,這使得新興市場成為一個令人興奮的切入點。下圖顯示了摩根士丹利資本國際新興市場指數和標準普爾500指數之間的比率。正如你所看到的,新興市場股票目前的相對低估程度比本世紀初以來的任何時候都要嚴重。